购房梦碎：美国年轻一代深陷财富困局

到了40岁，很多租房者已彻底放弃买房梦。图片来源：Getty Images 当今社会，很多人奋斗一辈子，就是为了有一天能拥有属于自己的房子。买房问题深刻影响着大多数人的工作、消费和投资决策。但是现在，越来越多的美国人已经放弃了这个梦想。 根据美国西北大学的李承亨（音）和芝加哥大学的柳永根（音）本月初发表的一篇论文，美国的年轻一代有的推迟了购房计划，还有越来越多的年轻人甚至根本放弃了购房梦。 买不起房这件事，在美国已经演变成了一场危机，让数百万美国人只能望房兴叹。2022年，美国房价的中位数是家庭收入中位数的5.81倍，远高于2010年的4.52倍和1984年的3.57倍。而且这还没有算上保险等也在同步上涨的相关成本。 李承亨和柳永根在论文中警告道，一旦买房看似成了一个不可能完成的任务，人们的行为就会发生变化，从此不再努力攒钱交首付。而那些坚持买房梦的人，往往在生活中更加精打细算，在工作中也会更倾向于努力奋斗。也就是说，决定买房与决定不买房的人的行为模式是有很大的不同的。 论文指出：“这些区别突显了希望的强大力量。如果你相信买房目标可以实现，那么你在一生之中，就会去存钱，去努力工作，去进行理性的投资决策，这些都会对社会的长期贫富差距问题产生深远影响。” 这也解释了为何“千禧一代”和“Z世代”都出现了“摆烂式消费”的现象，也就是有的年轻人在奢侈性消费和旅游上面毫无节制。来自租房平台Apartment List的数据显示，2023年，美国“千禧一代”的租房者中，完全没有攒首付的人的比例已经从2018年的48%飙升至67%。 与此同时，人们越来越追求工作与生活的平衡。很多人不再相信“努力就有回报”的鬼话，而是开始悄然“躺平”。李承亨和柳永根的研究发现，在净资产低于30万美元的租房者中，有4%-6%的人坦承自己已经“躺平”，这个比是有房者的两倍。 随着买房梦的破灭，新兴投资平台和高风险加密资产的兴起，也给人们提供了另一条财富增值的途径。 “如果稳健储蓄和传统资产积累方式已经不足以实现买房的目标，一些家庭就可能会寄希望于高风险、高回报的投资策略——比如投资加密货币。对有些买不起房的人来说，在高风险市场上赌一把，或许也是一种理性的选择，尤其是在一些年轻人看来。” “几乎就是月光族” 研究人员发现，即便购房意向较低的年轻租房者与购房意向较高者在财富水平上相差不大，但他们一生中的行为差异也会导致截然不同的结果。 简单来说，一个放弃买房梦想的人，可能会更难摆脱低财富的人生轨迹。研究发现，低购房意向者在人生大部分时间里的净资产几乎为零。“他们的资产积累微乎其微，几乎一直都在当月光族。” 李承亨和柳永根还指出，这种行为倾向甚至是有遗传性的。如果父母对买房失去希望，那么子女在人生起点上掌握的资源就更少，因而他们也会更倾向于不买房。相反，有房者的子女成为有房者的概率也更高。 “这样的话，不买房也会形成一种传导机制，这会加剧代际贫富差距。如此一来，普通家庭如果没有代际财富转移，就会更难实现买房的目标。” 李承亨与柳永根的研究还指出，到了40岁，对于有生之年要不要买房这件事，大多数租房者已经做出了自己的决定。李承亨与柳永根还建议，有的人目前虽然放弃了买房的希望，但是只要凑够了钱，他们还有具有买房意愿的。对于这部分人，有必要对他们提供帮助。 该研究还表明，在当前的高房价背景下，即使是高收入的美国人，也存在日益加剧的经济焦虑。 哈里斯民调（Harris Poll）近期的一项调查显示，许多年收入达六位数的美国人，其实自己都在承受着不为人知的经济压力。有64%的年收入达六位数以上者表示，他们的收入还远远谈不上成功，充其量只能勉强维持生计。 “我们的数据显示，即便是高收入人群也存在经济焦虑，他们表面过着富足的生活，私下里却也要还债、还信用卡，或为了生存挣扎。”哈里斯民调首席策略官、未来学家利比・罗德尼表示。 上周，简化资产管理公司（Simplify Asset Management）首席策略师兼投资组合经理迈克尔・格林在新闻网站Substack发表的一篇文章引发了很多人的共鸣。文章认为，考虑到住房、医疗、育儿、交通和大学学费的上涨，美国真正的贫困线应该定在家庭年收入14万美元。 与此同时，如果你的收入低于格林所定义的贫困线，那么你就算再努力提高收入，你也还是被社会抛在了后面。 他解释道：“美国的整个社会保障体系旨在那些生活在社会最底层的人，却为那些试图爬出社会底层的人设置了一个陷阱。当你的收入从4万美元增到10万美元时，你的福利的消失速度就超过了工资的增长速度。我将这称为‘死亡之谷’。”（财富中文网） 译者：朴成奎 The mere hope of maybe becoming a homeowner someday is such a potent motivator that it affects how people work, consume and invest, but many Americans are writing off that dream, researchers said. According to a paper published earlier this month from Northwestern University’s Seung Hyeong Lee and the University of Chicago’s Younggeun Yoo, younger generations are not just delaying homeownership—they are increasingly giving up on it. That’s as the housing affordability crisis has put ownership out of reach for millions. The median house price was 5.81 times the median household income in 2022, up from a ratio of 4.52 in 2010 and 3.57 in 1984. And that doesn’t include related costs that have grown like insurance. Once homeownership looks impossible, behavior shifts away from working towards saving enough for a down payment, Lee and Yoo warn. On the flip side, renters who hold on to dreams of owning a home tend to be more careful with their money and keep hustling at work, putting them on the path to ownership. “These dynamics underscore the powerful role of hope: belief in the attainability of homeownership shapes savings, work effort, and investment decisions in compounding ways over the life cycle, with profound implications for long-run wealth inequality,” they wrote. That helps explain elevated consumption among millennials and Gen Zers who are “doom spending” on lavish purchases or vacations. In fact, the share of millennial renters with zero savings for a down payment jumped to 67% in 2023 from 48% in 2018, according to Apartment List data. Meanwhile, demands for more work-life balance and declarations of “quiet quitting” track with a diminished perception that working harder will pay off. Lee and Yoo found that among renters with net worths under $300,000, the share who admit to low work effort is 4%-6%, which is twice the rate among homeowners. And as homeownership hopes fade, new investment platforms and the proliferation of risky crypto assets have created an alternate avenue for growing wealth. “If steady saving and traditional asset accumulation no longer suffice to secure a home, some households may instead pursue high-risk, high-return strategies—such as investing in cryptocurrencies—as a last resort,” Lee and Yoo said. “For those priced out of the housing market, gambling on improbable but potentially transformative gains may appear rational, particularly among younger cohorts.” ‘Effectively living hand-to-mouth’ Even when there isn’t much difference in wealth between young renters with a low probability of owning and those with a high probability, the change in behavior over their lifetimes produces vastly different results, according to the researchers. Giving up makes it even harder to escape low-wealth trajectories. They found that renters with low ownership odds continue to have nearly zero net worth through much of life, “effectively living hand-to-mouth with negligible asset accumulation.” That behavior tends to carry over, Lee and Yoo added. Children of parents who lost hope start with fewer resources and more likely to give up too. Conversely, children of homeowners are more likely to be homeowners as well. “In this way, giving up homeownership can act as a transmission mechanism that entrenches and amplifies wealth inequality over generations, potentially leading to a society in which homeownership becomes increasingly out of reach for households without intergenerational transfers,” they explained. By age 40, most renters have determined whether they still have a good shot at homeownership or not. Lee and Yoo propose aid for renters on the margins who have lost hope but could still transition to the hopeful category with enough money to get them over the threshold. Their research adds to the growing signs of economic anxiety amid the overall affordability crisis, even among higher-income Americans. A recent survey from the Harris Poll that showed many who earn six figures are privately struggling. Among the findings was that 64% of six-figure earners said their income isn’t a milestone for success but merely the bare minimum for staying afloat. “Our data shows that even high earners are financially anxious—they’re living the illusion of affluence while privately juggling credit cards, debt, and survival strategies,” Libby Rodney, the Harris Poll’s chief strategy officer and futurist, said in a statement. And in a viral Substack post last week, Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager for Simplify Asset Management, said the real poverty line should be about $140,000 a year in household income to account for the increased cost of housing, healthcare, childcare, transportation and college. At the same time, Americans who are below Green’s version of the poverty threshold are still falling behind, even as they climb the income ladder. “Our entire safety net is designed to catch people at the very bottom, but it sets a trap for anyone trying to climb out,” he explained. “As income rises from $40,000 to $100,000, benefits disappear faster than wages increase. I call this The Valley of Death.” 财富中文网所刊载内容之知识产权为财富媒体知识产权有限公司及/或相关权利人专属所有或持有。未经许可，禁止进行转载、摘编、复制及建立镜像等任何使用。 原文链接：https://www.fortunechina.com/shangye/c/2025-12/03/content_470628.htm